During the April 15th State Council executive meeting, which was presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao, it was also reported that investment and domestic consumption rose, which was attributed to being spurred by a healthy and credit-rich banking system.
The views of economists in Mainland China concur with the State Council's optimism.
Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of BOC International, an investment service affiliated to Bank of China, said many major indices point to a recovery in the second quarter. Dong Xian'an, chief economist of Southwest Securities, a domestic brokerage, said the "nightmare" of the fourth quarter last year seemed to have ended thanks to the "strong, visible hand" of the government. Li Xunlei, research director of Guotai Jun'an, another brokerage, also said the economy is bottoming out. He forecast second quarter GDP growth of 7 percent. There has been widespread speculation that the government would launch a new round of fiscal stimulus, but with the recent positive signs, it is unlikely that the State Council will do so in the near future, economists noted (China Daily).
Despite the optimistism displaying at the State Council meeting, there were still words of caution, as they recognized that it might be too early to conclude a decisive victory. For instance, although investment and domestic consumption rose, industrial growth remains sluggish, while continuing to show net declines.
The World Bank shares the same optimisim. A study conducted by the World Bank, and titled Battling the Forces of Global Recession, perceives China's bottomoing out as providing a much-needed ray of hope for East Asian and Pacific economies.
Tokyo, April 7, 2009 – As countries in the East Asia and Pacific region prepare themselves for an expected surge in joblessness resulting from the global slowdown, a ray of hope may be emerging with signs of China's economy bottoming out by mid-2009, says the World Bank's latest half-yearly assessment of the region's economic health.
The latest East Asia and Pacific Update, titled Battling the Forces of Global Recession, says a recovery in
In the face of much weaker exports and a slowing down in domestic demand, the World Bank is forecasting that real GDP growth in developing
Zhang Ran, Economy 'better than expected', China Daily eclips, April 17, 2009.
World Bank: New & Broadcast, Chance Of A Bottoming Out In China Provides Ray Of Hope On An Otherwise Gloomy Horizon, Says World Bank's Review Of East Asian And Pacific Economies, Press Release No:2009/297/EXC, April 7, 2009, [世界银行《东亚经济半年报》说中国经济有望触底，给黯淡前景带来一线希望].
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