Wednesday, November 11, 2009

U.S. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and pending FTAs

According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Ron Kirk, the “United States has free trade agreements in force with 17 countries.” These countries as listed by the USTR are:

The USTR also reports that the “United States has signed free trade agreements with Colombia, Korea, and Panama, but Congress must enact legislation to approve and implement each individual agreement in order for them to go into effect.”

Source: Office of the United States Trade Representative.

According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative:

Summaries and Text

>>See Full Text of the Agreement (English) here.

>>See Full Text of the Agreement (Spanish) here.

Reports on the Agreement

>>See ITC Report here.

>>See Interim Environmental Review here.

>>See Final Text of United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) here.

  • The United States and Panama signed a trade promotion agreement, sometimes called a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), on June 28, 2007. Panama approved the TPA on July 11, 2007. The United States has not yet approved the TPA.

>>See Final Text of the United States and Panama Trade Promotion Agreement here.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative has also received “Public Comments Concerning the Pending Colombia and Korea Free Trade Agreements.” According to the USTR, “United States Trade Representative Ronald Kirk announced today that USTR has received more than five hundred responses to requests for public comment on the free trade agreements that have been negotiated with Colombia and the Republic of Korea. USTR had issued notices at the end of July inviting comment by interested parties by noon today, September 15. In its ongoing effort to identify and resolve outstanding issues related to the pending free trade agreements, USTR sought comments on stakeholders' views of the costs and benefits of the FTAs, how well they accomplished the objectives of the 2002 Trade Promotion Authority Act, and what concerns they may have with the agreements.” . . . .

>>Read full text of USTR Receives Public Comments Concerning the Pending Colombia and Korea Free Trade Agreements here.

As earlier mentioned, the free trade agreements, though signed, with the Republic of Korea and Columbia are pending ratification by U.S. Congressional approval. Despite the importance of ratifying both of these pending FTAs, the decision concerning ratification, thus bring into effect these agreements, will, ultimately, resolve to a political decision by the U.S. Congress. Moreover, a U.S. Congressional decision to ratify these critical FTAs will serve as a measure of the United States’ commitment to multilateral world trade.

Additionally, the following articles and essays discuss the politics of the ratification of both the KORUS FTA and the United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, notwithstanding the critical economic and diplomatic significance of these pending FTAs.

1). Korea-EU FTA failed to finalize, but still pending, which cites the following sources:   
EU, Korea failed to finalize trade pact in London, JoongAng Ilbo, Korea, 4 April 2009.
South Korea/US: FTA jumps major hurdles, faces others, Oxford Analytica, International Herald Tribune, April 2, 2007.
NAFTA Secretariat website
Lawmakers Postpone Korea-U.S. FTA Bill, Chosun Ilbo  (Arirang News), March 5, 2009. 

Korea-Singapore Trade Doubles Since 2005 FTA, Chosun Ilbo  (Arirang News), March 2, 2009. 

Dan Griswold, NAFTA at 10: An Economic and Foreign Policy Success, Cato Institute, Free Trade Bulletin, No. 1: December 17, 2002, >> Read full article - PDF version of Free Trade Bulletin No. 1.

Chung Hae-kwan, The Korea-Chile FTA: Significance and Implications, East Asia Review, Vol. 15, No. 1, Spring 2003, pp. 71-86, >> Read full article – PDF version.

Free Trade Agreement between EFTA and South Korea,(European Free Trade Association), European Reports, September 4, 2006.

Renowned professor calls for KORUS FTA renegotiation, The Hankyoreh, March 19, 2009.

Korea-EU FTA to Be Concluded Next Month, Dong-a Ilbo, March 16, 2009.

Kang Hyun-kyung, Proposal Made to Implement FTA With EU Ahead of US, The Korean Times, November 12, 2009.

2). Senate confirmation of Ron Kirk as US trade representative may confirm path to greater protectionism, which cites the following sources:

Jim Abrams, Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk confirmed as US trade representative, AP, March 18, 2009, (Chicago Tribune). 
Killion, M. Ulric. 2004. China’s Foreign Currency Regime: The Kagan Thesis and Legalification of the WTO Agreement, 14 Minn. J. Global Trade 43, (Winter).  
WTO NEWS: SPEECHES — DG PASCAL LAMY, March 2, 2009.
Bettina Wassenger, Tentative Free Trade Deal for S. Korea and Europe, NY Times, March 24, 2009.
South Korea, EU Reach Agreement On FTA, Bernama (Malaysian news agency), March 24, 2009.
3). Pending Ratification of the Korea-US FTA (KORUS FTA) and calls for renegotiation, which cites the following sources:
South Korea/US: FTA jumps major hurdles, faces others, Oxford Analytica, International Herald Tribune, April 2, 2007.
NAFTA Secretariat website
Lawmakers Postpone Korea-U.S. FTA Bill, Chosun Ilbo  (Arirang News), March 5, 2009.
Korea-Singapore Trade Doubles Since 2005 FTA, Chosun Ilbo  (Arirang News), March 2, 2009. 
Dan Griswold, NAFTA at 10: An Economic and Foreign Policy Success, Cato Institute, Free Trade Bulletin, No. 1: December 17, 2002, >> Read full article - PDF version of Free Trade Bulletin No. 1.
Chung Hae-kwan, The Korea-Chile FTA: Significance and Implications, East Asia Review, Vol. 15, No. 1, Spring 2003, pp. 71-86, >> Read full article – PDF version.
Free Trade Agreement between EFTA and South Korea,(European Free Trade Association), European Reports, September 4, 2006.
Renowned professor calls for KORUS FTA renegotiation, The Hankyoreh, March 19, 2009.

Korea-EU FTA to Be Concluded Next Month, Dong-a Ilbo, March 16, 2009.

Kang Hyun-kyung, Proposal Made to Implement FTA With EU Ahead of US, The Korean Times, November 12, 2009.

4). Economic crisis is driving call for more aggressive US trade policy, which cites the following sources:

Anthony Faiola, U.S. to Toughen Its Stance On Trade, Washington Post, March 10, 2009, A01.

M. Ulric Killion, Regional Economic Integration, Aug. 2008.

5). Lawmakers postpone ratification of Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, which cites the following sources:

South Korea/US: FTA jumps major hurdles, faces others, Oxford Analytica, International Herald Tribune, April 2, 2007.
NAFTA Secretariat website
Lawmakers Postpone Korea-U.S. FTA Bill, Chosun Ilbo  (Arirang News), March 5, 2009. 
Korea-Singapore Trade Doubles Since 2005 FTA, Chosun Ilbo  (Arirang News), March 2, 2009
Dan Griswold, NAFTA at 10: An Economic and Foreign Policy Success, Cato Institute, Free Trade Bulletin, No. 1: December 17, 2002, >> Read full article - PDF version of Free Trade Bulletin No. 1.
Chung Hae-kwan, The Korea-Chile FTA: Significance and Implications, East Asia Review, Vol. 15, No. 1, Spring 2003, pp. 71-86, >> Read full article – PDF version.
Free Trade Agreement between EFTA and South Korea,(European Free Trade Association), European Reports, September 4, 2006.

Copyright © Protected - All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Legal Reforms and Judicial Independence in Turkey: The Western-Donor-Aid Issue

A recently written short essay by Emrullah Uslu and titled “Judicial Opposition Criticizes the AKP Government,” and appearing in the Eurasia Daily Monitor, should be of interesting to those following modern judicial reforms in the Republic of Turkey (Turkey). The AKP government represents what hails as the Justice and Development Party or White Party (i.e., Turkish: Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi). The issue of reforming Turkey’s judiciary system transcends domestic borders. This is because even the Bretton Woods Institutions (BWIs), such as The World Bank, continue to follow Turkey’s modern judicial reforms.

A case in  point is that during the December 10, 2004 – Program: Judicial Reform for Improving Governance in Turkey, several representatives of governments, international bodies,  non-governmental organization and other institutions, including the World Bank, are in attendance as participants.  The concluding remarks for the 2004-Program were actually delivered by Roberto Dañino, who was, then, the senior vice president and general counsel of the World Bank, before resigning in 2006.

Demonstrating the international interests in judicial reforms in Turkey, the 2004-Program was actually a World Bank-funded program, and is only one of several judicial reform programs that have been funded by sources outside Turkey.

Judicial Reform Projects in Turkey

The “Judicial Modernization and Penal Reform” program was sponsored by the Council of Europe, and entails a budget of 10 million Euros, with a duration period from 2003-2005.

For the period of 2006, there is the “EU/Phare Twinning Covenant Domstolsverket” program was sponsored by the SIDA (The SwedishInternational Development Cooperation Agency), which was implemented by the Domstolsverket - The Swedish National Courts Administration.

For the duration of 2006, there was the “Pre-study in Turkey on Development of the Judiciary” program sponsored by the SIDA and implemented by the Swedish National Courts Administration (SNCA), though in partnership with the Ministry of Justice of Turkey.

During the period from 2001- 2002, there was the “Judicial Sector Exchange Program” sponsored by the DRL (Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, U.S. Department of State), with a budget of $400,000.

For the years 2005-2006, there is the “Support to the Establishment of Courts of Appeal” program sponsored by the EU Development Projects and implemented by the Brussels 5 - EC institutions, with a budget of EUR 800,000.

Then there is the Oct.-Dec. 2005 World Bank-sponsored “Judicial Reform Learning Program in Turkey program that was implemented by the PREM and LEG. 

Earlier in 2000, there is the “Strengthening of the Judiciary I Southeast Europe (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYROM, Greece, Romania, Turkey and where possible Yugoslavia)” program sponsored by the SELDI (Southeast European Legal Development Initiative) and implemented by the “The International Development Law Institute.” 

There is of course the earlier mentioned 2004- Judicial Reform for Improving Governance in Turkey program that was sponsored by the World Bank. 

During the period 2003-2006, there is the “Strengthening Human Rights Capacity in Turkey” program sponsored by the SIDA and implemented by the Raoul Wallenberg Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law, with a budge of SEK 30 626 000.

Judicial reform programs of this variety generally premise on a democracy promotion approach, thus, entailing an expectation of enhancing the institutional capacity of governments and their institutions. In the specific context of judicial reform, this generally means an expectation of improving institution capacity in areas such as access to justice, building networks, improving access to information, and improving the quality of judicial and legal education. The earlier mentioned programs, likewise, intend to improve the capacity of Turkey’s judicial system; i.e. carry out much-needed reforms, develop and implement strategies designed to address obstacles to reform.

Notwithstanding judicial programs from the 1990s, the earlier mentioned judicial reform programs in the 2000s also intend to address gaps, as in comparison to developed countries and economies, in developmental goals. Notwithstanding good governance models or policy, these are the gaps (or lags) mostly occurring in the areas of agriculture, energy, finance, transportation, communication, health and education.

Majid Mohammadi writes, “After decades of failures of developmental projects in authoritarian states, international community reached to this point that development will not be sustainable without reform in the areas of law, justice and public administration. Compared to billions of dollars spent on security and defense and hundreds of millions of dollars spent on infrastructural development, mostly funded (granted or loaned) by the international donors, millions of dollars spent on good governance is not noticeable.”

In terms of modern judicial reforms in Turkey, International bodies funding various judicial reforms programs expect that Turkey will improve both the functionality and efficiency of its judiciary system. A problem, however, may be that these international bodies funding reforms also expect that improvements in functionality and efficiency should parallel Western standards, or more particularly, the EU (European Commission and the Council of Europe) model. In defense of international bodies funding these programs and urging judicial reforms in line with Western standards, it seems reasonably that closing the gap (lag) might necessitate that countries and economies, such as Turkey, should align the conditions of its judicial system with international standards, such as the United Nations and the EU models.

Turkey’s Judicial Opposition

Emrullah Uslu, in “Judicial Opposition Criticizes the AKP Government,” writes:

The long standing dispute between Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the judiciary has once again resurfaced in recent weeks. Since 2007 the judiciary has led the opposition against the AKP. The constitutional court attempted to shut down the AKP and ban the prime minister from politics, while supreme court judges use every occasion to criticize the AKP government, and local courts file cases against President Abdullah Gul (EDM, January 13, May 20). Recently the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) differed with the justice ministry's annual appointment lists.

In the Turkish judicial structure the HYSK, which consists of five elected members from the supreme court and the council of state and two from the justice ministry (Justice Minister Saadullah Ergin and his undersecretary), has undisputed power to appoint judges and prosecutors on an annual basis. Judges and prosecutors' appointments usually occur in late June. This year, however, due to the disagreement between the justice ministry and the HSYK to determine who should be appointed and to which particular court, this process has suffered delays. The Turkish press reported that the conflict between the two centered on whether the prosecutors should remain in place, investigating the Ergenekon criminal network and the prosecutors who investigated unsolved political murder cases in the Kurdish region in 1990's and arrested Colonel Cemal Temizoz for his alleged involvement (Radikal, July 21).

Justice ministry officials insist that the Ergenekon prosecutors and those who investigated the unsolved murder cases in the Kurdish region must remain in their posts to maintain their judicial independence. However, Ali Suat Ertoson a member of the HSYK, reportedly presented an alternative list to appoint new prosecutors to examine these issues (Star, July 24).

While the crisis continues a photograph was leaked to the press showing Ertosun in a meeting with an Ergenekon suspect standing trial in the case (Yeni Safak, July 18). In addition, Ertosun has reportedly spent two days with Brigadier-General Ali Aydin, the commander of the Kayseri Regional Gendarmerie, where the suspect Colonel Temizoz works (Bugun, July 27). Consequently, the AKP government has pressured the HSYK to fire Ertosun (Yeni Safak, July 18). In response, the Deputy Head of the HSYK, Kadir Ozbek, released a statement refuting the allegations against Ertosun, and stating that his meeting with the Ergenekon suspect was a "normal procedure" (Cihan News Agency, July 27). . .

After three weeks of deadlock, the HSYK suggested a possible compromise. The HSYK members agreed that the current Ergenekon judges and prosecutors would retain their positions on the condition that the ministry launches an inquiry into the complaints and charges against the Ergenekon prosecutors -if sufficient evidence exists. . . The HSYK, meanwhile, will be responsible for making a decision on the inquiry (Hurriyet Daily News, July 28). . . In the aftermath of this reconciliation, HSYK elected members issued a written statement criticizing the justice ministry, the AKP government and the media. . .  The statement, however, did not mention whether the board has discussed replacements relating to Ergenekon and unsolved murder cases in the Kurdish region. The justice ministry responded to the HSYK's press statement by insisting that replacing the Ergenekon and unsolved murder case prosecutors violated the judicial independence of the prosecutors. It also accused the HSYK members of an unlawful attempt to use the authority of the justice ministry (Zaman, July 30).

Uslu’s essay, though insightful, speaks to on-going problems of Turkey’s judicial model and judiciary reforms, including a Western perceived need for greater independence of Turkey’s judiciary. His essay also presents issues of the efficient and effective delivery of foreign aid by Western donors intending to promote judicial reforms in other countries.

The Functional and Efficient Judiciary

During his closing remarks at the earlier mentioned 2004-Program, Roberto Dañino (2004), in a review of the program modules, described six modules; i.e. Module 1, Module 2, etc. He also stated that there are “four essential dimensions for the process of reforms” which are “institutions, the legal system, enforcement and social commitment.” Dañino then went on to summarize each of the program modules.

In Module 1, they (or participants) “examined the Principle Problem of the Judiciary establishing basic definitions, agreed on essential principles and also reviewed case load management, the practice of calling experts, and judicial personnel policy.”

In Module 2, they “discussed Ethical standards, their Enforcement for Judges and the Legal Professionals and Accountability of the Judiciary.”

In Module 3, they “reflected on the crucial role of Appointment, Promotion, Discipline and Removal of Judges and the complex nature of independence and accountability.”  Module 3 also deserves further attention. This is because Dañino mentioned two important functions of judicial review.

According to Dañino, “The first is to limit government power, and the second is to protect the rights of individuals. When a judiciary is truly independent, then its decisions are respected and enforced and the institution is less subject to political influence. However, judicial independence must be balanced by accountability of the judiciary and the obligation to carry out its duties while following the highest ethical standards. Judicial corruption ultimately destroys judicial independence.”

In Module 4, they “focused on European Union Accession in relation to access to justice and continuing education.”

In Module 5, they “discussed access to justice in relations to alternative dispute resolution (ADR) given that such services also improve the ability of a legal system to offer and deliver justice.”

In Module 6, they reviewed they discussions, “noted points of fundamental agreement, and received” their “Action Plan which will become a useful guide for follow-up activities.”

Nonetheless, as earlier mentioned, Uslu’s essay speaks to on-going problems of Turkey’s judicial model and judiciary reforms, including a Western perceived need for greater independence of Turkey’s judiciary. This also presents issues of the delivery of efficient and effective foreign aid that intends to promote legal reforms.

The Issues of Legal Reform and Western Donors

The issues of legal reforms are critical to all models of development. In the context of Turkey, it presents a challenge to a final accession to the EU. On April 14, 1963, Turkey submitted its application to accede to the EU (then the European Communities). In 1963, Turkey became an associate member of the EU. In 1995, Turkey signed a Customs Union agreement with the EU in 1995 and, on December 12, 1999, at the Helsinki summit became an official candidate for full membership. A negotiation process addressing Turkey’s full membership actually commences on October 3, 2005 with most authorities perceiving that accession, and assuming resolution of pending issues (i.e., judicial reforms), predicting a process that may take as long as ten years from this date.

Although Turkey also became a member of the Council of Europe in 1949, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1961, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1973, and an associate member of the Western European Union in 1962, Turkey’s membership bid to the EU remains pending (Cendrowicz, Time, Sept. 8, 2009). Borrowing from the title of Cendrowicz’s article, “Fifty Years On, Turkey Still Pines to Become European.”

All of this, ultimately, presents issues of the efficient and effective delivery of foreign aid by Western donor countries intending to promote judicial reforms in other countries and economies, especially non-Western countries and economies. In this respect, the EU and other countries may be wise to take their lead from earlier suggestions of the Brookings Institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

This is because, “in June 2006, a joint task force convened by the Brookings Institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released recommendations for reorganizing and reprioritizing U.S. foreign aid programs. The Brookings-CSIS Task Force called for a comprehensive review of foreign aid, led by Congress but involving key non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and government agencies, with the Goldwater-Nichols Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 serving as its model. The Brookings-CSIS Task Force advocates a U.S. development mission that is on parity with U.S. defense and diplomacy, which could result in the creation of a Department for Global Development for bringing together more than fifty U.S. government units involved in aid delivery. The task force also noted that U.S. spending on foreign assistance has seen its greatest increase in forty years, an expansion that also produced a growing incoherence in policy and a fragmentation in organization. What was observed to be a critical problem was the threat to hard power assets, resulting in the United States needing to deploy its soft power more effectively and efficiently” (Killion, 2007; Brookings-CSIS Task Force Releases New Recommendations on Transforming Foreign Aid, Brookings Inst., June 22, 2006).

The 2006 report of the joint task force “centered on the United States failing to take fuller advantage of potential synergies, with these disparate efforts sometimes working at cross purposes. The task force essentially found that the United States punches well below its throw weight in the international community, which should be unmatched when measured in absolute aid dollars. For these reasons, U.S. foreign aid must move away from a one-size-fits-all approach and should be redirected by a unified framework fusing U.S. objectives supporting capable foreign powers and countering security, humanitarian and transnational threats with differentiation based on governance and economic capacities. As a result, U.S. aid programs must be customized to the capacity and need of beneficiary-countries, while also recognizing that beneficial-countries afflicted with poor governance routinely perform the worst in addressing human needs” (Killion, 2007).

In the context of the efficient and effective delivery of U.S. foreign aid and legal reforms, there is the parallel example of U.S. foreign aid intending to promote legal reforms in Mainland China. This is because “United States foreign operations appropriations for China primarily support democracy-related programs, such legal training, legal aid, criminal defense, labor rights, the development of NGOs in China, monitoring human rights conditions in China from outside China, and preserving Tibetan culture. United States funding has been substantive in the area of legal reforms. The U.S. Congress has approved substantive funding for such programs, reflecting a growth from $10 million in 2002, to $23 million in 2006. From 1999 to 2006, U.S. government funding for democracy-related programs in China was about $110 million. Although the major recipients are Temple University (rule of law project), the International Republican Institute (village elections project) and the Asia Foundation (civil society project), many experts and authority suggest that U.S. congressional funding for legal reform efforts in China have produced limited benefits due to the lack of judicial independence, weak enforcement of laws, constraints on lawyers and political corruption” (Killion, 2007; Thomas Lum, U.S.-Funded Assistance Programs in China, CRS Report for Congress, May 18, 2007. General Accounting Office, Foreign Assistance: U.S. Funding for Democracy-Related Programs, Feb. 2004).

For these reasons, the EU would be wise to follow the recommendations set forth in the 2006 report, especially concerning the delivery of foreign aid intending to effect legal reforms that align the conditions of Turkey’s judicial system with international standards, such as the EU models. As observed by the eminent Professor Stanley Lubman, in the context of China and legal reforms, “China’s difficult transition is reflected in its legal institutions” and “The United States can assist China to build its legal institutions without preaching” (Stanley Lubman: A letter to Obama, WSJ, Nov. 4, 2009). Nonetheless, Professor Lubman admittedly argued that the United States should increase its support for legal reforms. Professor Lubman writes:

In recent years the U.S. government, including your predecessor’s administration, has increased the support that it has given to strengthen labor rights, legal aid, open government, and administrative law, augmenting the support for these and other institution-building efforts by multilateral and U.S. NGOs. The current administration ought to increase that support while restraining highly public calls that urge China to speed up its adherence to Western values. You might suggest creation of a modest program of U.S.-Chinese cooperation on legal issues” (Lubman, 2009).

Conclusion

It should now be understood, colloquially speaking, that Western donors should not simply throw vast sums of money at a problem without regard for issues such as efficiency and effectiveness, and even functionality. As previously mentioned, Western donors funding various judicial reforms programs expect that Turkey will improve both the functionality and efficiency of its judiciary system. A problem, however, are Western donors expecting that improvements in functionality and efficiency should parallel Western standards, or more particularly, the EU model. As the case of China and legal reforms arguably demonstrate, it may be unreasonable to expect that the closing of this gap necessitate that recipient-countries of donor aid will align the conditions of its judicial system with international standards, such as the EU models.

Additionally, Professor Lubman’s argument for continued support for legal reforms is not contra distinguishable from the thesis of this essay. This is because the essay does not intend to urge a denial of all foreign aid directed to or intending to promote legal reforms in other countries such as China and Turkey. Rather, what is being called for is the efficient and effective delivery of foreign aid, including foreign aid intending to promote legal reforms in other countries. It is for these reasons, the earlier report from the 2006 joint task force, which was convened by the Brookings Institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), provides invaluable insights to this historical problem of Western donors. Moreover, in the event, Turkey ever accedes to the EU one reasonably suspects that it will largely be a political-based decision (e.g., China’s 2001 accession to the WTO despite a Western-perceived-need for reform of its judiciary).

Sources:

Emrullah Uslu, Judicial Opposition Criticizes the AKP Government, Eurasia Daily Monitor -- Volume 6, Issue 146, July 30, 2009.

Roberto Dañino, Concluding Remarks, Judicial Reform for Improving Governance in Turkey, Dec. 10, 2004.

Majid Mohammadi, Judicial Reform Projects Sponsored by International Donors in Egypt and Turkey, USAID (http://www.usaid.gov), Oct. 17, 2006.

Leo Cendrowicz, Fifty Years On, Turkey Still Pines to Become European, Time, Sept. 8, 2009.

Brookings-CSIS Task Force Releases New Recommendations on Transforming Foreign Aid, Brookings Inst., June 22, 2006.

Thomas Lum, U.S.-Funded Assistance Programs in China, CRS Report for Congress, May 18, 2007.

General Accounting Office, Foreign Assistance: U.S. Funding for Democracy-Related Programs, Feb. 2004.

Stanley Lubman: A letter to Obama, WSJ, Nov. 4, 2009.

Ulric Killion, Modern Chinese Rules of Order (2007), Chapter 8.

Copyright © Protected - All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

The Sinicization of the Bolshevik Revolution

In a recent New York Times article, Clifford J. Levy (Russia’s Leaders See China as Template for Ruling, NY Times, Oct. 17, 2009), made the following observation. Levy writes:

“Nearly two decades after the collapse of the Communist Party, Russia’s rulers have hit upon a model for future success: the Communist Party. Or at least, the one that reigns next door. Like an envious underachiever, Vladimir V. Putin’s party, United Russia, is increasingly examining how it can emulate the Chinese Communist Party, especially its skill in shepherding China through the financial crisis relatively unbowed. United Russia’s leaders even convened a special meeting this month with senior Chinese Communist Party officials to hear firsthand how they wield power. In truth, the Russians express no desire to return to Communism as a far-reaching Marxist-Leninist ideology, whether the Soviet version or the much attenuated one in Beijing. What they admire, it seems, is the Chinese ability to use a one-party system to keep tight control over the country while still driving significant economic growth. It is a historical turnabout that resonates, given that the Chinese Communists were inspired by the Soviets, before the two sides had a lengthy rift.”

Levy, though perhaps inadvertently, is addressing the history, or perhaps even human geography, of a past and present China. In other words, he is addressing a history of the growth of the early Chinese communists and the Chinese Communist Party. It is also a history addressing an earlier vision of Mao Zedong, when he wrote, “The salvoes of the October Revolution [or Bolshevik Revolution] brought us Marxism-Leninism. The October Revolution helped progressives in China, as throughout the world, to adopt the proletarian world outlook as the instrument for studying a nation’s destiny and considering anew their own problems” (Mao Zedong, Selected Works, Foreign Language Press, 1961, Vol. IV, 413).

In terms of the “May 30th Movement (1925) [“that pushed the May Fourth Movement into the past”] that is, generally, recognized as serving as the moment of crystallization, in terms of the pursuit of revolutionary policy by early Chinese communists,” for earlier “Chinese intellectuals pursuing Marxist ideology, the Bolshevik Revolution answered the question of whether a backward country could seize state power and commence the pursuit of modernization” (Ulric Killion, Modern Chinese Rules of Order (2007), Chapter 4).

Then there is the historical relationship and struggles between the former Soviet Union and China. “In the 1920s and 1930s, the early Chinese communists would often succumb to Lenin’s insistence, and then to Stalin’s insistence, in order to avoid impairing the solidarity between China and the former Soviet Union, such as what occurred in the 1950 signing of the new Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance, and it attendant subsidiary agreements. In the 1950s and 1960s, Chinese leaders for the sake of solidarity would succumb to Stalin, and then Khrushchev. In the interim, the influence of the Bolshevik Revolution and Marxism continued to grow in the China of the 1920s and 1930s, and in subsequent years” (Killion, at Chapter 4).

In subsequent years, the relationship between China and the former Soviet Union and then later by Russia would experience profound  changes; which is perhaps subsequent to the localization or even Sinicization of the Bolshevik Revolution. In other words, changes attributable to “the by-product of a Chinese phenomenon of taking borrowed and transplanted foreign concepts and ideas, such as Marxism and Leninism, and imbuing them with the Chinese revolutionary spirit, such as the continuing attempt to finalize the adaptation, Sinicization or localization of Marxism to the realities of traditional culture and society” (Killion, at Chapter 1).

Levy rightly observes that: “Nearly two decades after the collapse of the Communist Party, Russia’s rulers have hit upon a model for future success: the Communist Party. Or at least, the one that reigns next door.” In a historical context, it is phenomenon commencing in the 1960s that is much more, however. This is because: “In the 1960s and 1970s, China began to emerge as a world player, as it plays the strategic game alongside the former Soviet Union and the United States, in the Asia region. In the years that followed, China became increasingly intolerant of succumbing to the insistence of the Soviet Union and its leaders, as it had done so in past eras” (Killion, at Chapter 4). 

In the context of International communism, the former Soviet Union and now Russia, the consequences of the historical growth and development of China and the Chinese Communist Party are obvious. “In the new millennium, it is China, and not the former Soviet Union or now Russia, which is evolving into the leading Marxist, communist or socialist country. From the 1920s to the new millennium, China evolved into a world player and is no longer a puppet of the former Soviet Union, or mere pawn in the international communist movement. Rather, China is now a leading world player in the international community. China has, in effect, adapted, Sinicized or localized the Bolshevik Revolution. As for Marxism, China after borrowing the Western philosophy of Marxist philosophy, gave it a Chinese name, Mao’s socialism, and then commences the process of adapting, Sinicizing or localizing Marxism, and is continuing to do so, in an attempt to finalize its adaptation, Sinicization or localization. China also borrowed Soviet models of industrialization and planning, and then jointly pursued a socialist-political polity and capitalist-economic policy. It is no less different than when China borrowed Buddhism during the Han Dynasty, because the Taoists, after accepting the heavens and hells from Buddhism, gave them Chinese names and invented Chinese Gods that would preside over them” (Killion, at Chapter 4).

Copyright © Protected - All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

A reader for the Group of 20 (G20) Pittsburg-financial summit

The Group of 20 (G20) financial summit convenes in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, from September 21 to 25, 2009. According to the The G20 Pittsburgh Summit Press Room, the selection of Pittsburgh as the site of the G20 summit is due to the city serving “as a model for economic and environmental transformation in the United States and abroad. The city has reinvented itself by building a balanced, innovation-driven economy based on its strengths in advanced manufacturing, financial services, information and communications technologies, health care and life sciences, education and research, and energy and environmental solutions.” The accomplishments of the city of Pittsburgh serve as a precursor to the critical issues confronting the G20 gathering.

For those unaware of the many issues confronting the G20 Pittsburg-summit, what follows is a short list of essays and interviews, including transcripts, that address several of the critical issues confronting the world's financial representatives and leaders that have come together in Pittsburg to discuss economic policies and address the global financial crisis.

The listing, though there are many other informative sources available, includes a list of informative and insightful interviews and essays from both the Brookings Institution and Peterson Institute for International Economics.

From the Brookings Institution:

G-20 Summit: Recovering from the Crisis

To enhance global coordination and to implement effective financial recovery policies, Brookings experts provide recommendations on how the G-20 can overcome current global governance and economic challenges.
 
Introduction » (PDF)
by
Kemal Derviş
, Vice President and Director, Global Economy and Development
Download the full report » (PDF)

Articles

The G-20 and the World Economy: Sink or Swim » (PDF)
Eswar Prasad
recommends that the G-20 maintain momentum on reforming the international institutions and advance international regulatory reform for the betterment of the overall global economy.

Confronting the Protectionism Spawned by the Crisis » (PDF)
Chad P. Bown makes the case for re-affirming the G-20 economies’ commitment to the World Trade Organization and curbing trade-restricting policies created by the crisis.

The G-20 and IMF: Their Future Roles in the International Monetary System » (PDF)
Domenico Lombardi proposes that the G-20 should focus on supporting effective measures to reform the International Monetary Fund.

To the G-20: Don’t Overlook Africa During the Recovery » (PDF)
Ernest Aryeetey, Mwangi Kimenyi and John Page assess the impact of the financial crisis on Africa and urge the G-20 leaders to support African economic recovery and growth. 

Welcome to the New Era of G-20 Global Leadership » (PDF)
Colin Bradford and Johannes Linn assess the effectiveness of the G-20 summits and how to move the G-20 forward as the global steering body.

International Financial Redesign: A Latin American Perspective » (PDF)
Mauricio Cárdenas calls for international financial regulatory reform in order to address Latin America’s need for greater financial development and to prevent future crises.

The G-20 and Climate Change: Achieving Comparable Effort Through a Carbon Price Collar » (PDF)
Warwick McKibbin, Adele Morris and Peter Wilcoxen propose G-20 leaders to focus on the challenges associated with climate change negotiations leading up to the United Nations climate conference in December.


From the Peterson Institute for International Economics:
audio  Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues

Simon Johnson says the Obama administration is not doing much to fix the financial system, and the G-20 summit may do even less.


Nicholas R. Lardy, analyzing the origins of the dispute with China over tire imports, warns that the fight could imperil future US-China economic and political cooperation.


Morris Goldstein says that Treasury Secretary Geithner's proposals for regulatory reform are a step forward that could be endorsed in principle at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh.

See also Peterson Institute Update: Global Economic Prospects, Commentary on Pittsburgh G-20

Michael Mussa The United States and the world economy have embarked on economic recoveries that will gather strength in the second half of 2009 and proceed fairly strongly through next year and into 2011. These recoveries may not be quite as vigorous as earlier postwar recoveries following deep recessions, but they will surpass almost all current forecasts on the upside and will once again illustrate that steep recoveries tend to follow deep recessions. While most economic forecasters expect a tepid recovery, and some fear a "double dip" in which economies fall back into recession at an early stage, Mussa expects "a V-shaped recovery" to be the most likely course. He forecasts that real GDP growth in the world will be 4.2 percent in 2010, spurred in part by greater than anticipated growth in developing countries and emerging markets. Real GDP growth in the United States will be 4 percent by the end of next year. The US unemployment rate in 2009 peaks at or a little below 10 percent but will fall below 9 percent by the end of 2010. China and India, which have been leading the global recovery, will register growth rates of 8.3 and 6.4 percent, respectively, in 2009 and 9 and 7.5 percent, respectively, in 2010. Mussa's forecast for 2009 is modestly above corresponding forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but considerably higher than the IMF forecasts for 2010. Economic performance over the next 16 months will reveal whether Mussa's "conservatively optimistic" view is correct. 
Read full paper [pdf] 


The G-20 is overlooking the more complex challenges that economic policy must confront as a result of the emergency measures undertaken since mid-2007. The exit strategy needs more international coordination in the form of: returning to a normal interest rate policy; shifting from discretionary fiscal stimulus to putting government budgets on sustainable paths; and withdrawing of banks' guarantees and state-ownership stakes. This type of international policy coordination is not only desirable but attainable, according to Adam Posen. He proposes that the G-20 leaders shed the notion that coordination gains are small, that the emphasis should be on discussion of policy measures and sequences, and that the measures agreed upon should consist of pragmatic steps. Working toward a pact on an exchange intervention standstill instead of a scheme for ongoing surveillance will ensure the G-20 gets through the exit from this crisis safely while providing the foundation for a more sound future regime. 
Read full op-ed

Simon Johnson The United States has been in a bubble-bust-bailout cycle since the late 1920s. During the most recent crisis, Ben Bernanke saved the financial system in the short term while exacerbating the long-term pattern of bubble-bust-bailout. A proposal unveiled by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to reduce the number of agencies carrying out regulation and giving new powers to the Fed is unlikely to work, according to Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, who cite the proposal's inability to alter banks' incentive to take excessive risks.
The authors propose a four-part solution to the bubble-bust-bailout cycle that centers heavily on making bank owners more financially responsible for the risks they take. The first part of their solution is to sharply raise capital requirements at banks so shareholders have more at stake and feel that their money is truly at risk when a bank takes gambles. Second, the managers and boards of directors of financial institutions should be personally liable up to a reasonable sum when their companies fail—losing a portion of past salaries and bonuses while seeing their pensions reduced. Third, rules need to be put in place so that regulators and public servants are not financially conflicted. Finally, we need more assertive leadership at the Fed regarding broader system issues.
Read full article

Marcus Noland While the effects of liberalized trade in goods have received much attention, research suggests that the gains from liberalized cross-border movements of labor would be much greater. But cross-border migration raises a number of economic and ethical issues, from individuals' right to seek a better situation for themselves and their families to the social externalities of increased migration both for sending and receiving countries. These issues are a source of growing controversy in countries around the globe, but the lack of a multilateral mechanism to address cross-border migration ensures that individual countries will continue to respond haphazardly to migration and its effects, while the number of migrants only grows. 
Read full op-ed 

See also from the Peterson Institute of International Economics: Pittsburgh G-20 Commentary 

America Cannot Resolve Global Imbalances on Its Own
C. Fred Bergsten and
Arvind Subramanian
Financial Times,

August 19, 2009

The G-20: An Idea from India
Arvind Subramanian
Business Standard,

August 26, 2009

Pittsburgh Priorities
Edwin M. Truman
RealTime Economic Issues Watch,
September 8, 2009
 


A Pat on the Back at Pittsburgh?
Michael Mussa
Peterson Perspectives Interview,
September 9, 2009
 


G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh, IMF Meeting: What to Expect?
Simon Johnson
RealTime Economic Issues Watch,
September 10, 2009


Ahead of Pittsburgh, Little Progress on Financial Reform
Simon Johnson
Peterson Perspectives Interview,
September 16, 2009


Making Capital Rules Work
Adam S. Posen
Welt am Sonntag\
September 16, 2009

How To Prevent an Unruly Rush for the Exit
Adam S. Posen
Financial Times
September 17, 2009

Pressures on Obama at the G-20 in Pittsburgh
C. Fred Bergsten
Peterson Perspectives Interview,
September 21, 2009
 


G-20 Thinking: In the Medium Run We Are All Retired
Simon Johnson
RealTime Economic Issues Watch,
September 23, 2009

Copyright © Protected - All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

The China tires safeguard saga—to be continued

The China tires safeguard issue may still be pending final resolution. In Washington, on June 2, 2009, the ITC hearing commences. It is a case filed by the USW Union on April 20, 2009, which alleges that an increase in Chinese tire imports have cost 7,000 US jobs. In response, the USW wants the Obama Administration to more than halve the number of imports from 46 million units last year to 21 million. The USW also wants the Obama administration to employ section 421 of the Trade Act of 1974, which requires the ultimate approval or rejection of the president even after a ruling of the US International Trade Commission (M. Ulric Killion, ITC rules against China - finds tire import surge (dumping) in US, June 20, 2009, citing Alec Zhu, Sino-US trade ties face a tough tire test, China Daily, June 9, 2009).

A decision by President Obama was due on or before September 17, 2009. On September 11, 2009, President Obama announced his decision, when affirming the earlier decision of the ITC, while also imposing additional duties on tire imports from China. According to the White House, “The new duty will take effect on September 26 and comes in addition to an existing 4 percent duty. It would fall to 30 percent in the second year and 25 percent in the third year” (M. Ulric Killion, Obama slaps duties on tire imports from China, Sept. 13, 2009).

China believes that the measure by the US, which runs counter to relevant WTO rules, is a wrong practice abusing trade remedies,” the Chinese mission to the Geneva-based body said in a statement (M. Ulric Killion, China wants WTO talks on US tariffs, Sept. 15, 2009). China also requested a WTO panel to investigate and rule on the case. 


(China has termed the US move on tire imports as a serious act of trade protectionism; Photo/China Daily).

In the interim, China also took steps toward imposing tariffs on American exports of automotive products and chicken meat; a move some characterize as “retaliation for President Obama’s decision late Friday to levy tariffs on tires from China” (M. Ulric Killion, China Moves to Retaliate Against U.S. Tire Tariff, Sept. 15, 2009).

While “China quickly denounced the US move as a serious act of trade protectionism that violates WTO regulations” (China wants WTO talks on US tariffs), there are, of course, others such as some unions such as the USW, some US tire producers, some politicians and others that hail the decisions of both the ITC and Obama administration.

For all of these reasons, the issue of China tire safeguards remains pending.  Many anticipate that the present status of the issue and present US resolution may challenge future US trade relations, notwithstanding US credibility at the upcoming G20 meeting. Quoting a recent WTO news release (M. Ulric Killion, G20 governments refrain from extensive use of restrictive measures, but some slippage evident, 14 September 2009):
G20 Governments have refrained from extensive use of restrictive trade and investment measures in recent months but have continued, in a limited way, to apply tariffs and non-tariff instruments that have hindered trade flows, the heads of the OECD, UNCTAD and the WTO indicated in a joint report to G-20 leaders meeting in Pittsburgh later this month.
Secretary General Angel Gurria of OECD, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy and UNCTAD Secretary General Supachai Panitchpakdi said trade rules and investment agreements have acted as a safety harness preventing the adoption of wide-scale protectionist policies. They welcomed the commitment by governments to continue open trade and investment policies while pointing out that world leaders, particularly those in the G-20, bear responsibility for ensuring that trade and international investment function as tools for economic recovery. The global crisis is not over, they said, and rising unemployment will undoubtedly spark further protectionist pressures in the years to come.
“We welcome the G20 governments’ commitment to maintaining open trade and investment regimes and their ability to withstand domestic protectionist pressures. International rules for trade and investment agreements ... are a source of opportunity in times of economic growth and a restraining influence in times of difficulty. It is in this latter role that the rules are serving us particularly well right now,” they said.
Tariffs, non-tariff measures, subsidies and burdensome administrative procedures regarding imports have been applied in recent months and these actions have acted as “sand in the gears of international trade that may retard the global recovery,” they said.
“It is urgent that governments start planning a coordinated exit strategy that will eliminate these elements as soon as possible,” said the heads of the three organizations.
______________________________________________________
For additional readings regarding the China tires safeguard issue, the following articles are available at M. Ulric Killion’s space’s blog.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Copyright © Protected - All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

The ITC tire (tyre) decision and bridging divergent ways of economic life

As observed by Xinhua news agency (Rational decision needed in settling China tire case, Sept. 3, 2009), “US President Barack Obama is due to decide in about two weeks whether or not to impose punitive duties on Chinese tire imports. Despite huge domestic pressure, the president is expected to make a rational decision to protect both US interests and overall China-US trade ties. The decision is due by September 17, with some trade protectionists insisting on imposing punitive duties of up to 55 percent on Chinese tyres to ‘save American jobs.’”


(Dealers negotiating beside a tire model at an auto part exhibition in Shanghai, May 21, 2008; Photo/Asianews photo).

The Approval/Rejection Dilemma
 
An issue of paramount importance is that this is the first “special safeguard investigation” on Chinese products under the Obama administration (Xinhua, Sept. 3, 2009). As such, the US decision on this case will be perceived as a strong indicator of the US-government policies toward Sino-US relations, especially future trade relations. While Chinese authorities wisely couch the issue in terms of the greater issues of multilateral trade, free and fair trade, and non-protectionist trade policies, there are those in the United States urging approval of the ITC ruling, thereby presenting a dilemma for President Obama and his administration, notwithstanding bipartisan politics. Those groups urging approval comprise unions such as the United Steel Workers (USW), some US tire producers, some politicians and others.

A dilemma for the Obama administration arises from the earlier decision of the International Trade Commission (ITC) that addressed the import of China-made tires. In Washington, on June 2, 2009, the ITC hearing commences. It is a case filed by the USW Union on April 20, 2009, which alleges that an increase in Chinese tire imports have cost 7,000 US jobs. In response, the USW wants the Obama Administration to more than halve the number of imports from 46 million units last year to 21 million. The USW also wants the Obama administration to employ section 421 of the Trade Act of 1974, which requires the ultimate approval or rejection of the president even after a ruling of the US International Trade Commission (M. Ulric Killion, ITC rules against China - finds tire import surge (dumping) in US, June 20, 2009, citing Alec Zhu, Sino-US trade ties face a tough tire test, China Daily, June 9, 2009).

As for the USW’s Section 421 petition, which is a petition filed pursuant to the Trade Act, the ITC issued its now controversial ruling: “by a 4-2 vote that a surge of low-priced consumer tires from China is harming the domestic industry.” It is an import surge that the USW alleged has caused “major job losses and plant closures in the United States” (Killion, June 20, 2009). 

On or before September 17, 2009, as earlier mentioned, President Obama, or perhaps more accurately, the Obama Administration is expected to make a decision, pursuant to section 421 of the Trade Act, which either approves or rejects the ruling of the ITC. A problem for the Obama administration is a growing wedge of opinions, both within and without the jurisdiction and borders of the United States, supporting both approval and rejection of the ruling by the ITC. 

A difficulty only enhanced by the fact of a multitude of reasons by those seeking either approval or rejection. Nonetheless, it is strongly intimated, when gauged by the news media reports, that the issue of approval or rejection of the ITC’s ruling is polarizing along the lines of protectionism, that is, US protectionist policies.

For instance, on the issue of approval or rejection of the ITC’s ruling, China appears, though many will disagree, to be promoting multilateralism, free trade, and removal of protectionist trade practices and barriers. According to Xinhua news agency (Sept. 3, 2009), “The case has become an opportunity for some politicians at the center of US partisan politics to make a show. However, the US government is strongly expected to take into account the long-term development of Sino-American trade relations in making its decision.” More notably, Xinhua writes: 
 
“If the punitive duties being called for by some politicians and trade protectionists are imposed, more than 10,000 Americans in the tire distribution and retail sectors may lose their jobs, along with about 100,000 Chinese manufacturing workers. In addition, US tire firms with investment in China will suffer. On these figures, punishing China's tire exporters will definitely lead to a lose-lose situation and requires strong opposition from both sides. 
 
Notably, accusations against Chinese tyres failed to win support from some American tire firms and unions. Some giant US tire manufacturers, including Cooper, have warned that mishandling the tire case may lead to further troubles.” 

In these respects, the official view from China appears to promote greater multilateralism in trade, genuine free and fair trade, and removal of protectionist barriers to trade. Ding Qingfen and Li Xing (Major trade test ahead for Obama with China tire ban) opined that following an acceptance of the ITC ruling, China Daily, Sept. 8, 2009) opined that following an acceptance of the ITC ruling by the Obama administration, “The high-level tariffs, which would effectively impose a ban, will keep Chinese tire imports off US roads, strip 100,000 local laborers of their jobs and potentially spark a series of special taxes by other nations and regions.” Ding and Li also opined that in response to an acceptance of the ruling that “China will likely take retaliatory measures against the US industries.” 
 
On the other hand, there is the view from the United States. As gauged by news media coverage, it is strongly suggested that the majority view is one of approval of the ITC’s decision. Thus, if the issue is, actually, reducible to simply protectionist versus non-protectionist trade policy, one suspects the majority of Americans, including union members and politicians, would opt for approval of the ITC’s decision.
 
A case in point is a recent article appearing in the Washington Post, which emphasized the loss of American jobs and wage differentials between Chinese and American labor. (Peter Whoriskey, As Cheaper Chinese Tires Roll In, Obama Faces an Early Trade Test, Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2009). As Whoriskey writes: 
 
“ALBANY, Ga. -- At the vast Cooper Tire plant here, workers heard for years about their rivals in Chinese factories. In meetings, managers urged employees to run production lines faster and more efficiently to help the company keep up. Overseas laborers were toiling for as little as 20 cents an hour, they were told, and working harder. 
 
Even more ominously, while browsing the aisles of Kmart and Wal-Mart, Cooper employees could see that, sure enough, the Chinese tires were cheapest. ‘They would have these meetings and say we’re up against the Chinese,’ said Larry Burkes, 29, who worked at the plant, which rises on the city’s outskirts just beyond a mobile-home park. ‘We’d hear it all the time: ‘They work for less.’ There was pressure.’ Now the plant that employed 2,100 people in this small south Georgia city is being shut down, and the troubles afflicting the U.S. tire industry are at the core of what many consider to be one of President Obama's first major decisions on trade policy.”
 
There is, of course, also the issue of US tire production. The Washington Post produced the following graphics demonstrating this shift in US tire production (Graphic: A Shift in Tire Production, Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2009). According to the Washington Post, “From 2004 to last year, the number of Chinese tires imported to the U.S. more than tripled.”

In other words, although the USW helped Obama to win the presidency, according to Whoriskey, there are other political forces at work; more particularly, he stressed the plight of non-union labor. It is also reasonable to suggest that Whoriskey’s article is typical of the US news media coverage, and the emphasis on the loss of US jobs, China-US wage differentials, factory closings, etc. However, although these concerns are genuine and deserve consideration by the Obama Administration, once the issues are so couched and prioritized, other key issues such as multilateralism, free and fair trade, Sino-US relations, etc, seemingly become loss in the shuffle or politics of the moment. This also serves as a reminder of earlier comments made by Obama’s US trade representative, Ron Kirk. As Jim Abrams earlier reported: Kirk, though supporting international trade in a broad sense, “has also made comments suggesting that protectionism might not be so bad after all (Killion, June 20, 2009, citing Jim Abrams, Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk confirmed as US trade representative, Chicago Tribune/AP, March 18, 2009).
 
Divergent Ways of Economic Life
 
Assuming such polarization, there is another issue that the news media coverage seems to neglect. It is not so much an issue of simply whether approval or rejection is contingent on adopting or rejecting protectionist trade policies, or even an issue of they (China) versus us (the United States). This is because another underlying issue is more plainly stated as an issue of their way versus our way. The idea of their way versus our way intends to reflect conflicting ways of life; more particularly, divergent ways of economic life between the two countries.
 
As recently observed by the former US trade representative and now World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick, “China has steered a steady course through the stormy seas of the economic crisis.” According to Zoellick, this is because, “Through its massive stimulus and strong lending program, China has contributed to the early signs of a global recovery by keeping its growth rate up. With growth in China now projected at close to 8 percent for 2009 as a whole, and signs of stabilization in many other economies in Asia and around the world, the chances of a truly global recovery have increased measurably” (M. Ulric Killion, World Bank - China Playing Important Role in Steadying World Economy, Zoellick Says / 佐利克说中国在稳定世界经济中起着重要作用, Sept. 9, 2009).
 
When relating the chances of a truly global recovery to positive contributions made by China, Zoellick reminds us of the critical importance of positive Sino-US trade relations. It is a growing economic interdependence deserving critical consideration by the Obama administration, when addressing the issue of approval or rejection of the ITC’s decision addressing the import of China-made tires.
 
China, especially the Chinese way of economic life, is possibly proving to be a model for success as it weathers the post-subprime global crisis (or financial crisis) better than most, just as it did during the earlier East Asian financial crisis (1997-98). In this respect, China’s way of economic life serves as a model to emulate, rather than challenge by US protectionist trade policies and barriers. Indeed, there are lessons to learn from China.
 
The current success or rebound from the financial crisis is partially due to the Chinese way of economic life. In the context of China, their way of economic life, actually, minimized the fallout from the US subprime mortgage crisis, notwithstanding China’s economic policies. For instance, this is because the Chinese way of economic life generally promoted higher saving rates (about 40% of net income), greater numbers of home owners (about 60%), and other measures of frugality in general; all of which are in stark contrast to the  numbers in the United States.
 
For these reasons, the Chinese way of economic life might deserve emulation. Moreover, in the United States, in the wake of the financial crisis America consumers are now demonstrating an increasing degree of frugality, in the American way of economic life. In addition, the financial crisis does not have its origins in China, nor did China’s export-based economy cause the financial crisis. According to Deng and Li (China Daily, Sept. 8, 2009), “China's GDP grew by 6.1 and 7.9 percent during the first and second quarter. While the US unemployment rate remains high and has been climbing since last April, the US expects to gain from China's high economic growth.” Deng and Li, more importantly, explained that the “Chinese economy has rebounded significantly without having to rely so much on exports.” 
 
The financial crisis (or US subprime mortgage crisis) has its origins partially in the American way of economic life. However, it is the Chinese way of economic life that partially contributes to an early rebound from the financial crisis, while also allowing China, as Zoellick explained, to increase the chances of a truly global recovery. 
 
It is also for these reasons that the Obama administration must proceed with caution on approving or rejecting the ITC’s ruling on the import of Chinese tires. An approval of the ITC ruling challenges the success of China’s way of economic life, misplaces the blame for the US subprime mortgage crisis, challenges the chances of a truly global recovery, denies the reality of the American way of economic life (i.e., a model of a consumer driven economy), and also, inevitably, challenges the goals and aspirations embodied in the world multilateral trade system (i.e., multilateralism, free and fair trade, reduction in trade barriers, etc). Conversely, a rejection of the ITC’s ruling enhances the chances of a truly global recovery, by promoting multilateralism in trade, free and fair trade, and a reduction in trade barriers (i.e., protectionist trade policies and barriers).
 
The answer to the woes of an American way of economic life lies neither in protectionist trade policies and barriers, nor in misplacing the blame for a US subprime mortgage crisis on the Chinese way of economic life. As earlier mentioned, the Obama administration must proceed cautiously when approving or rejecting the ITC ruling. This is because of the larger or global implications that associate with an approval of the ITC decision, including the goals and aspirations embodied in the world multilateral trade system. As Mohamed Sid Ahmed succinctly observed, “The United States cannot move out of history and be at the same time its most authentic contemporary expression.” (Mohamed Sid Ahmed, The Kagan Thesis (3) - Beyond Fukuyama and Huntington?, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line No. 602, Sept. 11, 2002).
_____________________________________
See also M. Ulric Killion, In Tire Tariff Case, Obama Faces First Chinese Trade Policy Test, Aug. 21, 2009.
 
See also M. Ulric Killion, China sends envoy to Washington on tire case, Aug. 19, 2009.
 
See also M. Ulric Killion, U.S. distributors deny Chinese tires disrupted market, Aug. 10, 2009.
 
See also M. Ulric Killion, Tariffs on Chinese tires to hurt US consumers: producers, Aug. 6, 2009.
 
See also M. Ulric Killion, China: U.S. gov't should seriously consider tire protectionism, Aug. 5, 2009.
 
See also M. Ulric Killion, ITC rules against China - finds tire import surge (dumping) in US, June 20, 2009.

Copyright © Protected - All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

WTO Airbus ruling, and issues of multilateralism, fair trade, and subsidies and countervailing measures


On Friday, Aug. 4, 2009, in reference to ongoing dispute between the United States and the European Union (EU), the World Trade Organization (WTO) rendered a decision, or more accurately, a preliminary report setting limits on government support for civil aircraft makers. The dispute, more particularly, addresses the dispute between Boeing (in the United States) and Airbus (in the European Union).

However, there are economists and industry analysts that now perceive the earlier relevancy of this dispute as having waned over the past years. According to Nicola Clark (New York Times, Five-Year Dispute on Aircraft Claims Loses Its Urgency, Sept. 3, 2009),

“But it is coming, economists and industry analysts say, too late to make much difference. . . While the findings may be a watershed in a case that, by many measures, is the largest and most expensive to be heard by the global trade body, analysts say the dispute’s relevance has faded as new airplanes are increasingly being designed and built in several countries.

And even if the W.T.O. forcefully declares Europe’s support for Airbus illegal, the process of resolving both claims would take many more years before any actions could be taken.

Some analysts also say it would be hypocritical to provoke a trade war over subsidies for airplanes after hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars and euros were given to failing banks and automakers on both sides of the Atlantic in the last year.

With Airbus and Boeing globalizing production even more — and other countries like China and Japan expanding their domestic industries — several analysts say the Americans and Europeans would be better off seeking a negotiated settlement.

‘Lots of governments are interested in having a piece of the civil aircraft construction business, so much of the aircraft produced today is not manufactured in the country with the nameplate,’ said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a trade specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. ‘This introduces a whole new level of complexity’” (Clark, 2009).


(An Airbus A380 from Singapore Airlines; Photo/Mike Clarke/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images).

Moreover, Clark (New York Times, 2009) also observed that companies such as Boeing and Airbus by virtue of increasing industry competition now routinely outsource a larger share of their manufacturing to international partners, while also increasingly relying on suppliers from other countries.

On Sept. 5, 2009, the WTO did issue its ruling that the EU provided illegal subsidies to Airbus for its aircraft. From the perspective of the United States and Boeing, and according to House Democrat (Representative/State of Washington) Norm Dicks, the ruling confirms the 2004 U.S. complaint that “all Airbus aircraft have received illegal subsidies and that these have caused material harm to Boeing.”

As Agencies (WTO rules for US in case over Airbus subsidies, Sept. 5, 2009) reported, “The WTO handed its interim ruling to the US and European Union, but didn't reveal the results partly because of the sensitive company information contained in it. Both Washington and Brussels confirmed they received the ruling.” Moreover, given that the WTO ruling is an interim decision, the EU can appeal the ruling. An appeal by the EU means that Boeing and Airbus will have to wait until next year for a decision, which prompts many analysts to suggest that the ongoing disputes will more likely eventually resolved by direct negotiations between the two companies, rather than a final decision by the WTO.

In the interim, following the issuance of the WTO ruling or preliminary report finding “that Airbus received illegal subsidies for the $13 billion A380 superjumbo jet and several other airplanes, hurting Boeing in the battle for sales,” both Boeing and Airbus, actually, declared a victory. As earlier stated, for U.S. Representative Dicks, it is a “broad ruling in Boeing’s favor.”

Nicola Clark and Christopher Drew (W.T.O. Says Aid to Airbus for A380 Was Illegal New York Times, Sept. 4, 2009) reported, “[Norm Dicks] said that the W.T.O. found that a substantial amount of the low-cost loan money, known as launch aid, that European governments provided to develop the A380 jet was illegal and should be repaid by Airbus. Mr. Dicks said a panel of experts from the trade organization found that other series of Airbus planes — the A300, A310, A320, A330 and A340 — also benefited from similar improper subsidies.”

Then there is the EU’s perspective of a victory; as “The Europeans stressed, however, that the W.T.O. had rejected many of the specific arguments that were in the complaint” (Clark and Drew, 2009).

Consequently, the WTO’s preliminary ruling is more or less a victory for Chicago-based Boeing. This is because the Airbus company (whose parent company European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company N.V. is partnered with Northrop Grumman Corp.), which also perceives the preliminary ruling as a victory, can appeal the ruling, and will probably do so. A consideration for both companies is an appeal process that will extend the finality of this dispute for yet another year. In this respect, economists and industry analysts may rightly perceive this dispute as eventually subject to finalization only by direct negotiation between the two companies.

The history of the dispute between Boeing and Airbus dates back to 2004. The issue of government support for civil aircraft makers, such as Boeing and Airbus, still enjoys modern relevance. This is because the issue uniquely focuses on the discussion of unilateralist trade policies by developed countries and economies. In 2004, the WTO trade regime witnesses an increase in protectionist trade activity by both developed and developing countries and economies. For instance, during this earlier period, developing countries such as China, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico and others were increasingly employing unilateralist approaches to trade. In addition, during the same period, there were developed countries such as Australia, Canada, the EU, and even the United States also employing protectionist trade policy (internal citations omitted) (Ulric Killion, Modern Chinese Journey to the West, Chapter 9, (2006)).

In particular, in terms of the United States, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has always presented a major problem in fostering multilateralism. This is mostly due to the mandatory retaliation action provision of the Trade Act that, actually, lends to, if not promotes, unilateralism in trade. There is also the then and continuing relevancy of governments subsiding aircraft producers such as Boeing and Airbus. This is because the case of the EU subsidizing the manufacture of Airbus aircraft would present the largest subsidy case in WTO history. The United States earlier argues that EU members have subsidized Airbus through financing at sub-market rates, assumption/forgiveness of debts, equity infusion, and/or other grants. All of which, from the perspective of the United States, violated the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM). As a result, as early as 2005, the United States’ request for a WTO panel was partly triggered by the EU’s commitment of $1.7 billon in launch aid for Airbus (Killion, 2006).

In the end, the dispute between Boeing and Airbus also appears hardly likely to resolve the greater issues of multilateralism versus unilateralism in trade, free and fair trade versus protectionism, and the issues of government subsides in trade and violations of the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM). This is a long contested trade dispute that problematically now presents both opponents, or the two companies, as perceiving a reading of the preliminary ruling as a victory. As such, the WTO’s ruling is far from resolving the greater issues surrounding the origins of this 2004 dispute.

Copyright © Protected - All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion.