Saturday, January 31, 2009

The Politics of China and US human rights reports

by M. Ulric Killion
13427610_11n
Photo/What ails Sino-U.S. relations, Xinhua.

“From a political perspective, the dispute reminds us of the serious differences over human rights between China and the US. The conflict over human rights will resurface whenever a chance presents itself. The Google incident is nothing but another Sino-US conflict over human rights. But it's nothing compared to China-US disputes over human rights in the early 1990s” -- Yan Xuetong (the director of Tsinghua University’s Institute of International Studies and an expert on Sino-US ties (Xinhua, August 3, 2010)). 

Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square tragedy, the United States annually presents a resolution to the meeting of the United Nations Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) condemning China's human rights record.

Although not joining the United States in every proposed resolution, the European Union generally concurs with the US assessment of China's human rights record.

In 2000, the EU General Affairs Council in Brussels condemned China for ""marking time' by signing international pacts, while failing to match their commitments with "tangible progress in the domestic human rights situation.'"

However, China defeats each proposed resolution for censorship with the support of third world countries. In response to the US position, China issues annually a 15,000 word governmental white paper addressing its progress in human rights.

Since the 1990s, China's Information Office of the State Council annually publishes a human rights report on the United States. An exception to the US practice of annually presenting a resolution to the UNHRC, admittedly, did occur in 2003 and 2005.

This occurs when,“Earlier in 2003, and now, in 2005, the State Department made agreements with China not to introduce a resolution at the UN Commission (UNCHR) condemning China’s human rights practices.”

References:
Killion, Ulric, 2006. Modern Chinese Journey to the West: Economic Globalization and Dualism, 106-07, 125.
Killion, M. Ulric. 2004. Post-WTO China: Quest for Human Right Safeguards in Sexual Harassment Against Working Women, 12 Tul. J. Int'l & Comp. L. 201, (Spring).
All rights reserved. Copyright protected: © M. Ulric Killion, 2009.

Friday, January 30, 2009

In anticipation of China cutting interest rates

by M. Ulric Killion 

Anticipating that China will cut interest rates
 
The People’s Bank of China, China's central bank, in Beijing. 

Today, in China, the UBS announced that it may lower  benchmark interest rates by 54-81 basis points, though not specifying a date for doing so. As for the relationship of the UBS  to the People’s Bank of China (POB),   in December 2008, the UBS sold its investment of approximate $3.4 billion POB-Limited H-shares through a placing to institutional investors. 

Earlier, in 2005, the UBS acquired about a $3.4 billion POB-H-shares stake, which was in preparation for the POB’s IPO to the international market. By considering the cutting of rates, China is attempting to leverage against  both market and deflationary pressures, thereby, ultimately, intending to spur economic growth. In particular, it is a possible interest rates cut of up to 81 basis points.

More specifically, mainland economists generally consider the economic threats as deflation, and others argue it is a return of inflation, while some, after witnessing an earlier retreat in inflation now propose raising real interest rates to stall off deflation. In the interim, since September 2008, China because of a perceived weakening economy has, actually, cut the leading rates fives, which amounts to about 215 points (i.e., 1 basic point is equivalent to 0.01 percentage points).

In these respects, China may or may not, actually, lower interest rates, and China may or may not raise real interest rates to ward off impending deflation. Problematic are the citizens of  China, including relevant key financial institutions, and an inter-related global economy, are left with a “wait and see” game. 
 
08yuan-graf01-190
China’s Change in Foreign Reserves. 

In the interim, as for an inter-related global economy, there are additional potential woes for a US economy. New relevant economic data poses problem of China retreating from the problem of the US debt, because China, as one source characterized, is losing the taste for debt from the US. China has bought more than $1 trillion of US debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, and continues to intensify to a greater degree, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home. The potential consequences are obvious for US borrowers. 

Moreover, and adding fodder to the problem, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected a 2009-forecast forecast for the global economy, by, actually, forecasting that with more than $2 trillion of bad assets clogging the financial system, the global economy could possibly, at least theoretically, come to a halt. Despite the bailout efforts of many countries, since October 2008, the risks to financial stability have intensified.
All rights reserved. Copyright protected: © M. Ulric Killion, 2009.